AT VIII Advert

If you were watching the Alliance Tournament on Saturday you may have seen the advert I put together for my alliance. The quality of some of the adverts shown during the tournament was amazing so my attempt pales in comparison to others'. This is not something I've ever tried before nor do I have particularly good tools for the task; I made this with Microsoft's free Movie Maker tool. I'm pretty happy with how it came out though. For next year hopefully I find someone who'll do something special for us.

Alliance Tournament Betting - Day 6

Today was finals day for the thirteenth EVE Alliance Tournament. I went into the day expecting to lose most of my bets. In retrospect I should have realised that the chances of me winning a good few were high. Given the teams playing today were the four top teams in this tournament there was probably as much guessing going on setting the odds as for people placing bets.

The Bets

Pandemic Legion to beat The Camel Empire (match 1)
Exodus. to beat Warlords of the Deep (match 1)
The Camel Empire to beat Pandemic Legion (match 2)
Exodus. to beat Warlords of the Deep (match 2)
Pandemic Legion to beat The Camel Empire (match 3)
Pandemic Legion to beat Warlords of the Deep (match 1)
Pandemic Legion to beat Warlords of the Deep (match 2)
Warlords of the Deep to beat The Camel Empire (match 1)
Warlords of the Deep to beat The Camel Empire (match 2)
Warlords of the Deep to beat The Camel Empire (match 3)
Warlords of the Deep to beat The Camel Empire (match 4)

As close to half the bets won against the odds as is possible when betting on an odd number of matches. I won back all bar 4.5 Millions ISK of the money I bet. More important than that, the quality of the matches I watched was outstanding. I thoroughly enjoyed watching today even if I did miss a couple of the fights at the start.

Finally Tally

Bet: 1350 Million ISK
Won: 1053 Million ISK
Overall: 297 Million ISK down

Thoughts

I came into this experiment with around 400 Million ISK in EVE Bet credit which was gifted to me from a couple of EVE meetups. My intention was to seed myself more interest in watching the Alliance Tournament than I've had in the past. The side intention was to see just how viable betting exclusively on the underdogs in each match was. I succeeded in the primary goal. In the past I've half-heartedly watched the AT but not really understood what was going on or cared enough to find out. In 2013 at Fanfest I told a CCP employee who worked on running the AT that I felt sorry for him as EVE is a terribly boring game to watch. This time around, however, I was yelling at the TV (I had twitch streaming on 40 glorious inches of LCD); I had my son watching some of the matches with me while I tried to explain what was going on; I even had one of the kids in my street hooked (he climbed in through my window to watch more when I didn't realise - I turned around from my PC to see him sitting on my sofa watching a match!). In fact my son (who's 6) was upset that he had to go to bed and miss the final three matches! I call that op success, particularly because I'll get to watch the final three matches again so he can see them.

As for betting against the odds, well as you can see that strategy cost me almost 300 Million ISK. To be fair that's only a quarter of everything I bet so it isn't as terrible as it may seem. Possibly by doing a bit more filtering on the teams I could have lowered the losses but really I don't think that would have worked too well. Funnily enough EVE Bet seem to know their stuff. The little ISK I have left shall be randomly blown on some silly bet to see if I can get lucky. Just now I can get 2.81 on Galway to beat Kilkenny as Hurling...

It's been a great three weekends watching these matches unfold. It was brilliant watching my friends in The Bastards do so well. It was good watching Ministry of Inappropriate Footwork doing well too as I've flown with some of them. I cheered for Glasgow Dunlop outsurviving the rest of his team in a Scary Wormhole People match. This has been the first year I've known people in the tournament and I'm sure that's helped with my enjoyment, but the betting sure added on top of that too. Now, with that over, I need to keep well away from watching anything of anykind otherwise I'm sure my wife would love to take me into an arena and punish me with rapid light missiles of any kind.

I can't wait for AT XIV!

Alliance Tournament Betting - Day 5

I was pretty sure that as the Alliance Tournament progressed my strategy of betting on the underdog was going to become less and less successful. Today really proved that point with three quarters of my ISK disappearing into smoke.

The Bets

The Afterlife. to beat The Tuskers Co.

End of Life to beat The Gorgon Empire and Spawn

Test Alliance Please Ignore to beat THE R0NIN

Phoebe Freeport Republic to beat Hard Knocks Citizens

Tactical Narcotics Team to beat The Tuskers Co.

The Gorgon Empire and Spawn to beat Shadow Cartel

Exodus. to beat THE R0NIN

Hard Knocks Citizens to beat Triumvirate.

Warlords of the Deep to beat The Camel Empire (match 1)

Nulli Secunda to beat Pandemic Legion (match 1)

Warlords of the Deep to beat The Camel Empire (match 2)

Nulli Secunda to beat Pandemic Legion (match 2)

Warlords of the Deep to beat The Camel Empire (match 3)

Nulli Secunda to beat Pandemic Legion (match 3)

Shadow Cartel to beat The Tuskers

Hard Knocks Citizens to beat Exodus.

The Tuskers Co. to beat Warlords of the Deep

Nulli Secunda to beat Exodus.

As you can see about only two of the 16 played matches gave me any return. A further two matches were not played which meant I got the 20 Million ISK bet between those back as well. All in all a terrible day for betting against the odds.

Tally

Bet: 1240 Million ISK

Won: 947 Million ISK

Overall: 293 Million ISK down

Just one more day to go...

Alliance Tournament Betting - Day 4

You all know what's going on now. If not, you can read day 1, day 2 and day 3 to get up to speed.

The Bets

Shadow Cartel to beat Pandemic Legion

Tactical Narcotics Team to beat Nulli Secunda

Triumvirate. to beat Warlords of the Deep

Exodus. to beat Camel Empire

Vox Populi. to beat Hard Knocks Citizens

Phoebe Freeport Republic to beat R.E.V.O.L.U.T.I.O.N

Ministry of Inappropriate Footwork to beat THE R0NIN

TEST Alliance to beat The G0dfathers

End of Life to beat Dead Terrorists

Project.Mayhem. to beat The Gorgon Empire and Spawn

Agony Empire to beat The Afterlife.

Out of Sight. to beat The Tuskers Co.

Nihilists Social Club to beat Hard Knocks Citizens

R.E.V.O.L.U.T.I.O.N to beat Northern Coalition.

Brave Collective to beat Ministry of Inappropriate Footwork

Easily Excited to beat Test Alliance Please Ignore

End of Life to beat Dream Fleet

Project.Mayhem. to beat M.I.F

The Bastards. to beat Agony Empire

Out of Sight. to beat Rote Kapelle

THE R0NIN to beat Shadow Cartel

The G0dfathers to beat Pandemic Legion

As is becoming familiar with this betting strategy I lost ISK. I'm resigned to losing all the ISK I had in EVE bet by the end of this experiment. Given it was free ISK I don't mind. Even better, I only need to win a further 30 Million ISK to be able to bet on all the remaining matches in the tournament.

Tally

Bet: 1080 Million ISK

Won: 906 Million ISK

Overall: 174 Million ISK down

Alliance Tournament Betting - Day 3

Last weekend I announced my intention to bet on the underdog in as many Alliance Tournament matches as I could afford to. After a weekend of 64 matches I was 133 Million ISK in the red. There are only 44 matches over this new weekend so it should prove a little cheaper for me. So with no further ado, here's how day three went.

The Bets

Tactical Narcotics Team to bear Vox Populi.
Phoebe Freeport Republic to beat Nulli Secunda
Triumvirate. to beat The Afterlife.  

The Tuskers Co. to beat Warlords of the Deep

Dead Terrorists to beat Exodus.

The Gorgon Empire and Spawn to beat The Camel Empire

Confederation of xXPIZZAXx to beat Hard Knocks Citizens

It Must Be Jelly Cause Jam Don't Shake to beat Nihilists Social Club

The Explicit Alliance to beat Northern Coalition.

R.E.V.O.L.U.T.I.O.N to beat RAZOR Alliance

Brothers in Arms Alliance to beat Brave Collective

Drop the Hammer to beat Ministry of Inappropriate Footwork

Easily Excited to beat Circle-Of-Two

Test Alliance Please Ignore to beat The WeHurt Initative

The Methodical Alliance to beat Dream Fleet

End of Life to beat Curatores Veritatis Alliance

M.I.F to beat Verge of Collapse

Togethor We Solo to beat Project.Mayhem.

CAStabouts to beat The Bastards.

Suddenly Spaceships. to beat Agony Empire

Scary Wormhole People to beat Rote Kapelle

Out of Sight. to beat SpaceMonkey's Alliance

Once again there were definitely more losses than wins. The difference is the odds seem to have been longer on those teams which did win. I spend 220 Million ISK in bets. I won 213 Million ISK back. Oh, so close to actually breaking even. Running tally: 860 Mil ISK bet; 720 Mil ISK won; 140 Mil ISK lost

Alliance Tournament Betting - Day 2

In my previous post I announced my intention to bet on the underdog in as many Alliance Tournament matches as I could afford to. Day two of AT XIII saw another 32 matches resulting in me spending another 320 Million ISK. Thankfully I still had free EVE-Bet credit from the Edinburgh and Glasgow meetups so I'm not yet burning through the little ISK I earn each month.

The Bets

Pandemic Horde to beat Confederation of xXPIZZAXx
Northern Coalition. to beat Shadow Cartel
It Must Be Jelly Cause Jam Don't Shake to beat Forsaken Federation
R.E.V.O.L.U.T.I.O.N to beat THE R0NIN
The Explicit Alliance to beat A Band Apart.
The G0dfathers to beat Hard Knocks Citizens
RAZOR Alliance to beat The Kadeshi
Nihilists Social Club to beat Pandemic Legion
Tactical Narcotics Team to beat Circle-Of-Two
Brothers in Arms Alliance to beat WAFFLES.
404 Alliance Not Found to beat Drop the Hammer
Vox Populi. to beat Test Alliance Please Ignore
Easily Excited to beat Clockwork Pineapple
Brave Collective to beat Phoebe Freeport Republic
That Escalated Quickly. to beat The WeHurt Initative
Ministry of Inappropriate Footwork to beat Nulli Secunda
M.I.F to beat Triumvirate
Nerfed Alliance Go Away to beat Dream Fleet
Gone Critical to beat End of Life
Togethor We Solo to beat The Afterlife.
Black Legion. to beat Verge of Collapse
The Methodical Alliance to beat Warlords of the Deep
Quebec United Legions to beat Project.Mayhem.
Curatores Veritatis Alliance to beat The Tuskers Co.
Affirmative. to beat The Bastards.
Dead Terrorists to beat Rote Kapelle
Out of Sight. to beat Exodus.
Alternate Allegiance to beat Suddeny Spaceships.
CAStabouts to beat The Gorgon Emprie and Spawn
Scary Wormhole People to beat Chaos Collective
Agony Empire to beat The Camel Empire
-affliction- to beat SpaceMonkey's Alliance

Compared to yesterday there were a few more matches where the result went against the odds. I guess this was a result of first match losers squaring off against each other and the difficulty of predicting how those matches would turn out. As a result I got a decent amount of winning come back to me. It still wasn't enough to break even but it came close. For the 320 Million ISK I placed in bets I got 306 Million ISK back. That means in day two of the tournament I only lost 14 Million ISK. Total lost so far is 133 Million ISK.

Next week there are 22  matches each day. I have enough ISK sitting to bet on the Saturday and either need to win or deposit a further 110 Million ISK to bet on Sunday's matches as well. With a bit of luck maybe I can start eating back into my deficit as well.

Alliance Tournament Betting - Day 1

As you are likely aware the first round of alliance tournament matches started today. For the first time since I started playing EVE I actually have people I know flying in the tournament. This has really boosted my interest in watching the matches this year. People I have met IRL are spread across Dead Terrorists, Scary Wormhole People, A Band Apart, Ministry of Inappropriate Footwork, and of course The Bastards (who are so close with us they might as well be part of IoS anyway).

In addition to the increased interest in watching some matches I also devised a cunning plan to get myself emotionally involved with the rest of them. From the various EVE meets I've been to recently I had acquired a reasonable balance with EVE-Bet.com which was handed out as tokens. With that ISK I placed a 10 Million ISK bet on the longest odds in all 32 matches scheduled for today.

Who said there's nothing good on the TV?

The Bets

SpaceMonkey's Alliance to beat The Camel Empire
That Escalated Quickly. to beat Nulli Secunda
-affliction to beat Agony Empire
Ministry of Inappropriate Footwork to beat The WeHurt Initative
Chaos Collective to beat CAStabouts
Phoebe Freeport Republic to beat Clockwork Pineapple
Scary Wormhole People to beat The Gorgon Empire + The Gorgon Spawn
Suddenly Spaceships. to beat Exodus.
Alternate Allegiance to beat Out of Sight.
Affirmative. to beat Rote Kapelle
The Bastards. to beat Dead Terrorists
Qubec United Legions to beat The Tuskers Co.
The Kadeshi to beat Pandemic Legion
Project.Mayhem. to beat Curatores Veritatis Alliance
Easily Excited to beat Brave Collective
Nihilists Social Club to beat RAZOR Alliance
Drop the Hammer to beat Test Alliance Please Ignore
Black Legion. to beat Warlords of the Deep
404 Alliance Not Found to beat Vox Populi.
A Band Apart. to beat The G0dfathers
Tactical Narcotics Team to beat WAFFLES.
The Methodical Alliance to beat Verge of Collapse
Brothers in Arms Alliance to beat Circle-Of-Two
The Explicit Alliance to beat Hard Knocks Citizens
End of Life to beat The Afterlife.
It Must Be Jelly Cause Jam Don't Shake to beat THE R0NIN
Gone Critical to beat Together We Solo
Forsaken Federation to beat R.E.V.O.L.U.T.I.O.N
Nerfed Alliance Go Away to beat M.I.F
Pandemic Horde to beat Shadow Cartel
Dream Fleet to beat Triumvirate.
Northern Coalition. to beat Confederation of xXPIZZAXx

You can see from the colours above (green meaning I won ISK; red meaning I lost) that by and large the odds assigned by EVE Bet were generally accurate in their estimations. I always knew this would be the case; the question was whether the higher odds on the bets I won would outweigh the many losses.

I spent 320 Million ISK betting on the 32 matches. I collected 201 Million ISK in payouts. Thus, I lost 119 Million ISK. To be honest, this wasn't as bad as I expected. I really thought I would get nothing back. My biggest saviour was The Methodical Alliance who returned 73 Million ISK after beating Verge of Collapse. As a bonus it means I have enough ISK left over to repeat the same experiment on day 2 of AT XIII. Let's see how that goes.

Below The Airhorns

In fleet tonight we got to talking about the wonderful music in the EVE client and lamenting the loss of the jukebox feature from yesteryear when someone brought this up:



Now I realise this isn't new and everyone except me has probably seen it before. However I felt it was my duty to share this to the minority of you who might have missed it before.